DFS Strategy: Week 1 DraftKings Picks
By Ian Rosen (@iozen9)
After 217 days of the seemingly never-ending break between the Pats-Falcons Super Bowl and Sunday of Week 1, the football gods have finally blessed us.
If there is only one thing that makes me happier than free dessert on your birthday, it is when Scott Hanson says, “7 hours of commercial free football starts…NOW!” Watching the NFL Red Zone channel is all the more enjoyable when your DFS players play well, and since it’s my job to inform you on the best and worst DFS options, I will make sure that your Sundays are ten times more enjoyable.
Top Scoring QB: Russell Wilson (SEA, $6,900)
When talking about QBs, game script is the most important factor. Wilson will be up against the worst pass defense from last year in Green Bay. I expect Rodgers to put up points so of course Wilson will need to retaliate. His mobility will be a huge factor in this game. This game could very well be the highest scoring game of the week as Vegas projects the scoring total to be over 50 total points scored.
Top Scoring RB: Le’Veon Bell (PIT,$9,800)
Bell will show the world why he deserves to get paid big money this week. He will translate his anger into a massive game against a subpar Browns defense.
Top Scoring WR: Julio Jones (ATL, $8,500)
I expect this game to be a shootout and what other guy is better to take in a shootout than Julio Jones. Matt Ryan will need to throw the ball a lot this game as the bears have quietly been improving their run game. Coming off of a heartbreaking super bowl loss, Julio will want his revenge and will torch the Bears’ secondary.
Top Scoring TE: Zach Ertz (PHI, $3,500)
Give me Ertz all day, baby. With Norman following Jeffery all game, and the Redskins having one of the worst TE defenses in the league, I look for Ertz to EXPLODE in this game. I also like stacking Ertz with Wentz if you choose to do so.
Top Value Play: Paul Richardson (WR, SEA, $3,700)
At a price of $3700, Richardson comes into Week 1 as the WR2 on a team that is expected to air the ball out a ton. He could sneak into the top 10 for WRs when it’s all said and done.
Bust of the Week: Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE, $5,300)
I think Crowell will have a very good year, but this game script is one to forget for Crowell. I expect the Steelers to score points with ease against this inexperienced defense. Since Deshone Kizer is starting in Week 1, the Steelers will try and most likely succeed with putting pressure on Kizer. With the heavy pressure, Cleveland’s run game should be hard to get going. That being said, I do like Duke Johnson this week as it is very common for inexperienced QBs to check down to running backs frequently.
Must Play of the Week: LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF, $8,200)
Shady will be the entire team’s offense this week. I expect somewhere in the range of 100 rushing yard, 50 receiving yards and a td.
Contrarian Pick of the Week: Darren Sproles (RB, PHI, $3,900)
Sproles was basically unused in all of this year’s preseason. The healthy 34-year-old pass-catching stud should have plenty of opportunities this week. It is no secret that Wentz likes to check the ball down to the running back, and with the Eagles running game being rather shaky outside of Sproles, he should have upwards of five catches and look to break out versus this below average run defense.
The GPP Winner: Marvin Jones (WR, DET, $4,100)
What? Marvin Jones? Yes just hear me out.
With Patrick Peterson expected to shadow Golden Tate and Tyrann Mathieu covering the slot that leaves Marvin Jones with Justin Bethel. Bethel, who is not even ranked in the top 100 cornerbacks of 2017 according to Bleacher Report, could help Jones have a field day.