Week 14 fantasy football playbook
Fantasy matchups to exploit, sneaky DFS picks and the latest rankings to help make your Week 14 Sunday less miserable.
Thanks again for being a loyal reader and subscriber! Keep reading for the latest fantasy football rankings, injury news, players trending up and down, and more. Best of luck in Week 14!
Quick links: Latest Week 14 rankings | DraftKings and FanDuel projections
🤕 Pain Index: Week 14
The above are my own estimates, sometimes based on unofficial media reports. Always double-check before benching a player and consult the latest NFL injury report.
↕️ Week 14 QBs: Matchup breakdown
💪 Stud vibes
Coming off a monster 4-TD performance on Thanksgiving, Jordan Love could keep it up with a matchup against the Bears, one of the better matchups for opposing QBs this season. … If you’re stuck with Tyrod Taylor as a bye-week filler, it might not turn out that bad. His legs still have some juice, as seen last week with 44 rushing yards and a TD. Miami allows the third most rushing yards to opposing QBs, and is allowing nearly 20 FPPG to the position. … In the sleeper category, we have Tyler Shough, who has had a steady floor of late, topping 17 points in 2 of 3. The matchup with TB could elevate his output, as no team has allowed more FPPG since Week 9 to QBs.
🥶 Bust vibes
You’d be a brave one to sit Patrick Mahomes this week, but know that the Texans are the stingiest defense for fantasy QBs to face, and held Josh Allen to just over 10 fantasy points two weeks ago. … Justin Herbert hasn’t topped 16.8 fantasy points for three straight games, and is likely playing despite just having hand surgery on Monday. The Eagles have shut down some good QBs over the last four games as well, including holding Love and Jared Goff to 14 points or less. … Caleb Williams has fallen under 11 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Plus, Rome Odunze has been ruled out.
🍟 DK value menu
Best affordable value
$4.7K - J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | Proj: 15.8 pts
$4.9K - Tyrod Taylor (NYJ) | Proj: 16.3 pts
$5.4K - Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | Proj: 17.3 pts
Worth the extra coin
$6K - Jayden Daniels (WAS) | Proj: 19.1 pts
$7.7K - Josh Allen (BUF) | Proj: 23.9
View latest DraftKings and FanFuel projections and value grades
↕️ Week 14 RBs: Matchup breakdown
💪 Stud vibes
Washington yields the fourth most FPPG to RBs on the season (23.2), but the most since Week 10 (34.4). This bodes well for Aaron Jones, who will start for the Vikings despite leaving Week 13 with an injury. … Chase Brown is on fire, topping 15 fantasy points in five-straight. He also saw seven targets from Joe Burrow in his return last week and has been a dual threat most of this season. He should exploit his tasty matchup with the Bills. … Quinshon Judkins is on a mini roll of late, topping 15.9 fantasy points (PPR) in each of his last two, and has a plus matchup with the Titans. If Dylan Sampson (Q) sits, his usage will get an extra boost.
🥶 Bust vibes
Over their past three games, the Chiefs have yielded just 90.3 total yards from scrimmage to opposing RBs, and only 16.5 FPPG on the season. Woody Marks is in for a slog. … The Raiders are only projected to score 16.5 by bookmakers this week. Meanwhile, Ashton Jeanty’s floor has been held up thanks to his use in the passing game, but the Broncos allow the 2nd fewest targets to opposing backs, and the 5th fewest FPPG to the position since Week 8. … Tony Pollard hasn’t topped 10 fantasy points in any of his last seven games, and Tyjae Spears’s return has eaten into his usage. Don’t expect much in a tough matchup with Cleveland.
🍟 DK value menu
Best affordable value
$5.3K - Aaron Jones (MIN) | Proj: 13.8 pts
$5.7K - RJ Harvey (DEN) | Proj: 14.3 pts
$5.6K - Kenneth Walker (SEA) | Proj: 14.3 pts
Worth the extra coin
$8.8K- De’Von Achane (MIN) | Proj: 22.9 pts
$7.8K - James Cook (BUF) | Proj: 21.4
View latest DraftKings and FanFuel projections and value grades
↕️ Week 14 WRs: Matchup breakdown
💪 Stud vibes
The Colts are minus stud corner Sauce Gardner, but even his acquisition before Week 10 hasn’t stopped them from rising to the 9th-best fantasy matchup for opposing receivers. Meanwhile, the trade deadline’s other big mover, Jakobi Meyers, has hit paydirt in each of the last two games. … Zay Flowers only has one touchdown this year, and it was in Week 1. But he’s matching up with CB Asante Samuel, who, by far, allows the most FPs per route run (0.79). … With Marvin Harrison Jr. out again, Michael Wilson gets another week to shine, as he’s averaged 27.7 PPR in two games minus Harrison and a 32 percent target share.
🥶 Bust vibes
Even though A.J. Brown is highlighted in the chart above, he’s pushed DeVonta Smith to the back burner over the last few weeks, as Smith hasn’t topped 8.9 fantasy points once over the last three. He also gets the toucher secondary matchup against CB Tarheeb Still, who’s allowed just 0.22 FPs per route. … Xavier Worthy has put together a few decent PPR performances the last two weeks, against two of the most generous opposing defenses for WRs, but the Texans have allowed the third fewest total fantasy points and catches to WRs on the season. … You won’t find me calling for Ja’Marr Chase to bust with your playoff spot on the line, but “Chase has one of the more underrated, difficult matchups in the NFL,” writes Fantasy Points’ Joe Dolan, against CB Christian Benford. He’s shut down the likes of Nico Collins, Tetairoa McMillan, Drake London, and Chris Olave this season. Plus, Tee Higgins is back.
🍟 DK value menu
Best affordable value
$5.6K - Michael Wilson (ARI) | Proj: 15.4 pts
$3.8K - Luther Burden (CHI) | Proj: 10.3 pts
$4.6K - Adonai Mitchell (NYJ) | Proj: 12.1 pts
Worth the extra coin
$8.7K - Puka Nacua (LAR) | Proj: 21.1 pts
$9K - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | Proj: 21.9
View latest DraftKings and FanFuel projections and value grades
↕️ Week 14 TEs: Matchup breakdown
💪 Stud vibes
Brenton Strange has looked sharp since returning from injury, with 138 yards and a touchdown in his two games. The Colts have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to the position. … If Dalton Kincaid can finally return to the field, he can’t as for a better situation against the Bengals, who are the best fantasy matchup for tight ends (19.4 FPPG), and it’s not even close, at nearly six more FPPG than the second best (Jaguars, 13.9 FPPG).
🥶 Bust vibes
Oronde Gadsden hasn’t seen a target in the red zone over his last two. With Herbert and the offensive line banged up, a tough matchup against Philly, and RB Omarion Hampton back in the lineup to be leaned upon, it’s not looking good. … The Raiders have yielded the second-fewest FPPG to TEs since Week 8, and outside of last week’s fluke performance against Washington, Evan Engram hasn’t surpassed 50 yards in any game this season.
🍟 DK value menu
Bargain-bin finds
$3.2K - AJ Barner (SEA) | Proj: 9.0 pts
$3.2K - Colston Loveland (CHI) | Proj: 8.4 pts
$3.7K - Harold Fannin (CLE) | Proj: 9.7 pts
Worth the extra coin
$4.2K - Kyle Pitts (ATL) | Proj: 12.8 pts
$6K - Brock Bowers (LV) | Proj: 15.2
View latest DraftKings and FanFuel projections and value grades