Week 15 fantasy football playbook
Matchups to exploit, sneaky DFS picks and the latest rankings to make the most of your Week 15 fantasy football contests.
Thanks again for being a loyal reader and subscriber! Keep reading for the latest fantasy football rankings, injury news, players trending up and down, and more. Best of luck in Week 15!
Quick links: Latest Week 15 rankings | DraftKings and FanDuel projections
🤕 Pain Index: Week 15
The above are my own estimates, sometimes based on unofficial media reports. Always double-check before benching a player and consult the latest NFL injury report.
↕️ Week 15 QBs: Matchup breakdown
💪 Stud vibes
Everybody and their auntie loves Brock Purdy this week (which means he’ll probably bust), but there are good reasons why. The Niners have a 28.5-point implied team total from Vegas, second-highest in Week 15, and while Purdy’s matchup didn’t make the chart above, the Titans have allowed the third-most FPPG to QBs since Week 7 (23.6), with six of those seven QBs scoring at least 21.7 fantasy points. … No Jayden Daniels this week, which is probably for the best, as it’s tough to sit a player like that in the playoffs even when all signs point to bad news, as they did last week. Anyway, interesting stat on Marcus Mariota: against man-coverage, as he has against the Giants, his deep-throw rate jumps to 16.4% (5th highest).
🥶 Bust vibes
If Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes can’t break double-digit fantasy points against the Texans, then I’m not betting on Jacoby Brissett to, no matter how surprisingly well he’s performed all season. He’ll be down a starting left tackle to boot.
🍟 DK value menu
Bargain-bin buy: Marcus Mariota (WAS) - $5K, proj: 17.9 DK pts
Best affordable value: C.J. Stroud (HOU) - $5.2K; proj: 19.5 DK pts
Worth the extra coin: Matthew Stafford (LAR) - $7K; proj: 17.6 DK pts
🔥 DFS hot take
“It doesn’t seem like a coincidence to me that [C.J. Stroud] averages 21.3 DraftKings FPG in the four games he’s been pressured on fewer than 40% of his dropbacks, or 27.3 DraftKings FPG in the two games he’s been pressured on fewer than 34%. The Cardinals have only hit a 40% pressure rate in two of their 13 games.” — Ryan Heath, FantasyPoints.com
View the latest DraftKings and FanFuel projections and value grades
↕️ Week 15 RBs: Matchup breakdown
💪 Stud vibes
Coming off 26 carries in Week 14, Woody Marks is set up to eat a ton in a very favorable matchup and with an expected favorable game script, with the Texans 9.5-point favorites. When Houston leads, they tend to lean on the run, as Marks’ FP/snap climbs 64% in these situations. … From Week 9 onward, Travis Etienne has the 7th most fantasy points, and has six TDs over his past five games. Only the Giants have allowed more fantasy points per game since Week 9 than the Jets, who have yielded the most rushing TDs during that span (9).
🥶 Bust vibes
I’ve had a bad feeling about Breece Hall since he wasn’t traded before the deadline. He’s been feast or famine overall, scoring single digits in six games this year, with three of those performances coming over the past five weeks. I’m not expecting much at all in a tough matchup with the Jags. … Aaron Jones hasn’t hit paydirt since Week 10, and hasn’t topped 8.7 FPs in PPR in three-straight.
🍟 DK value menu
Bargain-bin buy: Chris Rodriguez (WAS) - $4.9K, proj: 11.4 DK pts
Best affordable value: Woody Marks (HOU) - $5.6K; proj: 16.7 DK pts
Worth the extra coin: Christian McCaffrey (SF) - $9K; proj: 24.4 DK pts
🔥 DFS hot take
“This is a high price point, but McCaffrey is worth spending up. Fantasy’s top-scoring back returns from his bye leading all backs in touches and receptions, having found the end zone 13 times in as many games. … Week 15 presents a good matchup against a Titans defense that hasn’t faced a ton of volume but has still allowed the fifth-most touchdowns (16) to the position.” — Mike Clay, ESPN
View the latest DraftKings and FanFuel projections and value grades
↕️ Week 15 WRs: Matchup breakdown
💪 Stud vibes
Terry McLaurin has settled back into playing football nicely, and with Mariota behind center, he is no worse for wear. In fact, he fed him 14 targets in Week 13’s tough matchup with Denver and Patrick Surtain, and McLaurin scored the only TD that Surtain has allowed this season. Plus, Deebo Samuel is ill and questionable to suit up. … Chris Olave was WR6 in Week 10, the last time he matched up with the Panthers (5 rec., 104 yards, 1 TD). … Justin Jefferson runs 80 percent of his routes on the outside, and Dallas allows the most yards and TDs of any team to out-wide WRs.
🥶 Bust vibes
I expected Zay Flowers to do well given last week’s matchup, though he still only has one touchdown this season, and none since Week 1. He's got a tough individual matchup with the Bengals’ DJ Turner this week, one that yielded only two receptions for six yards the last time they met this year. Plus, the Bengals have kept all receivers to single-digit fantasy points (PPR) over the last four games. … Rome Odzune might sit again, which is good news for Luther Burden owners. The bad news is the Browns have yielded the second-fewest yards to receivers since Week 10, and Burden’s numbers are better against the zone than man-coverage, which puts him at a further disadvantage against Cleveland.
🍟 DK value menu
Bargain-bin buy: Terry McLaurin (WAS) - $5.4K, proj: 13.1 DK pts
Best affordable value: Nico Collins (HOU) - $6.7K; proj: 16.5 DK pts
Worth the extra coin: Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) - $8.1K; proj: 22.8 DK pts
🔥 DFS hot take
“The news that Tee Higgins has been ruled out means that Chase is almost certainly in line for double-digit targets. We saw him catch seven of 14 for 110 yards against Baltimore when these teams met on Thanksgiving. We know Joe Burrow will be chucking, as the Bengals throw at one of the highest clips in the league and a matchup projected to be competitive and high-scoring gives Chase serious ceiling potential.” — Ryan Belongia, Rotowire
View the latest DraftKings and FanFuel projections and value grades
↕️ Week 15 TEs: Matchup breakdown
💪 Stud vibes
Any TE facing the Bengals has stud potential. The problem with the Ravens is that they have two TEs worth starting this week. Isaiah Likely has edged out Mark Andrews over the past three games in targets (by one) and had five catches for 95 yards against them earlier this season. … Dalton Kincaid is healthy again, and when he has been fit, he’s performed, with a minimum of 14.1 PPR points in five of those nine games. He also caught all six of his targets for 108 yards the last time he faced the Pats.
🥶 Bust vibes
Oronde Gadsden still hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8 and has been held under 30 yards receiving in three of the last four games. … Hunter Henry gets the toughest TE matchup in the league against the Bills, against whom he only managed 6.6 FPs earlier this season.
🍟 DK value menu
Bargain-bin buy: Theo Johnson (NYG) - $3.5K, proj: 9.7 DK pts
Best affordable value: Harold Fannin (CLE) - $4K; proj: 12.0 DK pts
Worth the extra coin: Trey McBride (ARI) - $7.4K; proj: 16.4 DK pts
🔥 DFS hot take
“Fannin has quietly moved into third among tight ends in targets and fifth in receiving yards. … Njoku is out this week, so all of the tight end work should go to Fannin. Chicago is neutral against the position, but with the weather projected as disgusting this weekend, the backs and tight ends will be the top performers for both teams here.” — Harley Schultz, The Huddle
View the latest DraftKings and FanFuel projections and value grades
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